Shane Bieber Opts In

With the 2025 MLB season officially in the books, attention now shifts toward 2026. This past week we got our first taste of the offseason with options being picked up or declined and qualifying offers being handed out. Quickly, we’ve already gotten a clearer picture of how this winter’s free-agent class will take shape. One of the more surprising developments was Shane Bieber’s decision to exercise his $16 million player option to remain in Toronto for another year. In my 2025 trade deadline recap I mentioned how much I liked the upside in acquiring Bieber, even as he was still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Looking back now, that move can be marked as a win, and the benefits for the Blue Jays keep stacking. 

At the time of the trade, Bieber had thrown only 11.1 innings through 4 minor league starts, striking out 21 while walking just one and allowing only 2 runs. The numbers were definitely encouraging, but with over a year away from major league action, I viewed him more of a depth piece and a stabilizer for the back end of a rotation heading into the postseason. It turns out, he was much more than that. His presence provided crucial stability down the stretch, especially during Chris Bassitt’s IL stint in September. 

Bieber’s decision to stay in Toronto is intriguing. He has spoken often about how much he enjoys Toronto and has an appreciation for the organization. On the open market, however, he likely could have secured a three or four year deal, especially since he wouldn’t have been tied to the qualifying offer. Factoring in his $4 million buyout, the opt-in essentially gives him $12 million in new money.  With a full offseason back under his belt it's not inconceivable that Bieber, in 2026, can profile out as a solid #3, fringe #2 starter, depending on the team. With starting pitching always being a necessity around the league I’m surprised he didn’t take his chances. Could the CBA expiration and potential lockout after the 2026 season be a factor? It will be interesting to see if that causes teams to hesitate on multi-year deals for non-elite players in the next few months

From Toronto’s perspective this has to feel like a big win. Because Bieber was traded midseason, he is ineligible to receive the qualifying offer ($22.205 million), meaning the Blue Jays would not receive a compensation pick had he walked. With Max Scherzer’s $15 million coming off the books, retaining Bieber effectively replaces that salary with a more reliable, higher upside arm. With a good showing in 2026, this deal leaves the door open for Toronto to extend a qualifying offer a year from now if they don’t decide to offer him an extension. A dice roll with potential in July has turned out better than we all expected.