Paul Goldschmidt
August 2, 2024
Infielder
St Louis Cardinals
Overview
Paul Goldschmidt has earned the status as one of the best pure hitters in the MLB throughout his 14-year tenure. With a career slash line of .289/.383/.511 and an OPS+ of 139 Goldschmidt has racked up 7 all-star appearances, 4 gold gloves, 5 silver sluggers, and 1 MVP along with 2 second place finishes. However, in 2024, Goldschmidt has been a shell of his former self. Not only has his batting average significantly dropped to a mere .231, but his power just isn’t the same with an OPS under .700, both representing the lowest marks of his career. Goldschmidt has seen his barrel rate, walk rate, and hard hit rate drop, and his strikeout rate, swing rate, chase rate, and 1st pitch swing rate go up. Another very interesting observation is the drastic change in success against offspeed. When comparing the three different pitch types (fastball, offspeed, breaking ball), in 2023 against offspeed pitches, Goldschmidt experienced a batting average of .353, a slug of .608, and a line drive % of 39.5%, all of which were the best by a wide margin. In 2024, however, these numbers changed significantly to a .143 batting average, a .163 slugging percentage, and a line drive rate of 21.9%, all of which were the worst by a wide margin. His strikeout rate against said pitches also jumped from 22.8% to 33.3%.
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Increased Aggression
Looking at these numbers and the changes from ‘23 to ‘24 it appears to be that Goldschmidt has become more aggressive at the plate. He has been known for his elite eye, with an walk rate of 13.1% throughout his career. Since 2015, when MLB started tracking percentile data, that lands him at the 89th percentile. However, this year he is in the 39th percentile with a rate of only 7.1%. Furthermore, a swing % increase from 44 to 46.4 to go with a 1st pitch swing % jump from 23.8% to 29.3%, and a strikeout increase from 23.4% (37th percentile) to 29.4% (9th percentile) can further explain the potential increase in plate aggression. His struggles against changeups are peculiar. As mentioned he is performing very poorly against offspeed, a pitch that he is used to crushing. I have found that his first pitch swing % on off-speed pitches dropped dramatically from 32.3% to 11.1%, in response his first pitch swing % on fastballs has increased from 28.5% to 37.4%. Moreover, once Goldschmidt finds himself in behind counts (0-1, 0-2) along with all 2 strike counts, pitchers are feeding him changeups at a much higher rate. The sudden increase in changeups along with increased swing aggression could potentially explain the shocking changes in his pull and oppo %. In 2024 Goldschmidt has pulled the ball 8.1% more and going to the opposite field 7.4% less. Unfortunately, I have been unable to find metrics to indicate how deep in the zone Goldschmidt is making contact in 2024 as compared to 2023. Further research and observation of this data might be able to provide support for these numbers if he is slightly early and making contact out in front more often.
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Signs of Improvement
Goldschmidt still however excels in hitting the ball hard. He is still in the 88th percentile in Hard-Hit %, the 80th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 71st percentile in Barrel %. Also looking at his expected numbers, Goldschmidt could be very close to getting back to the anchor in the Cardinals’ lineup. Although his xBA is only roughly 20 points higher than his actual which would still be around league average, his xSLG is hovering around .449 landing him in the 70th percentile among the league. Since the start of July, Goldschmidt has been improving, with a BA of .260 and a SLG of .470, it looks like he has started to figure it out.
Summary
Paul Goldschmidt’s 2024 season marks a slight dip from his established offensive performance levels, characterized by a drop in batting average and power metrics. The appearance of increased aggression at the plate has led to higher strikeout and chase rates, undermining his historically elite plate discipline. The noticeable decline in his effectiveness against offspeed pitches is particularly striking, as it contrasts with his previous dominance in this area. Despite these struggles, Goldschmidt’s ability to hit the ball hard remains intact, suggesting potential for a rebound the rest of the way. Recent improvements in his batting stats since the beginning of July indicate that he might be on path to regain his form. With the Cardinals currently one of the hottest teams and pushing for a playoff spot, if he can continue this trend, a resurgence from Goldschmidt could be pivotal in solidifying a successful season.