Michael Kopech
September 16, 2024
Pitcher
Los Angeles Dodgers
Overview
A first-round draft pick straight out of high school, Kopech was drafted 33rd overall in the 2014 MLB draft. Kopech dominated the minor leagues while in the Red Sox farm system. Over 2 full years at single A he racked up a 2.4 ERA with 11.7 K/9, reaching a status as the #5 prospect for Boston. In 2016 Kopech was sitting in the upper 90s with a pitch rumored to touch 105 mph. In the winter after the 2016 season, Kopech along with Boston’s #1 overall prospect Yoan Moncada were traded to the White Sox for future World Series-winning ace Chris Sale. Kopech became the White Sox’s #2 prospect and the number 10 prospect in all of baseball before debuting in 2018. Kopech however underwent Tommy John surgery that same year which put him out for the rest of 2018 as well as all of 2019. Ever since Kopech has been flipped back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen. To start the 2024 season with the White Sox, Kopech was moved permanently to the bullpen. In his tenure with Chicago, Kopech amassed 146 appearances, with 60 being starts, finishing with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. In July 2024, with a record of 2-8 with a 4.74 ERA, Kopech was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Since being traded, he has exploded into one of Los Angeles’ more reliable relievers. With 19 appearances he is 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 4 saves, which is good for an ERA+ of 424 and a 1.91 FIP.
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Figure 6
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Figure 7
Utilizing His Strengths
Looking at Figures 1-5 you can see the adjustments to each pitch that he has made with his new team. Although his velocities remain relatively the same across pitch types, all of his spin rates have increased. His cutter, having increased over 100 RPMs, has dropped in vertical movement over 3 inches. His slider, having increased over 60 RPMs has been reshaped. With moving horizontally 2 less inches it has added more depth, dropping 2.5 more inches. His fastball is the least changed pitch, with the spin rate only increasing around 40 RPMs and running armside 0.8 inches less. However, Kopech already holds an elite fastball which has been his strongsuit throughout his entire career. Although these are minor changes, it is possible that the Dodgers have slightly adjusted Kopech’s grips.
As stated, Kopech’s fastball is one of the best in the majors with batters only hitting .185 against it with a 34.3% whiff rate. With the White Sox, Kopech was throwing his fastball at 79.2%, cutter at 10.6%, and slider at 10.1%. Since then although his fastball is roughly the same at 78.7% he has dropped his cutter usage to 8.4% and increased his slider usage to 12.8%. Figures 6 and 7 show these usage numbers along with the locations of each pitch. As you can see with the White Sox (Figure 6), Kopech was throwing in the zone, a lot. But, if you look at Figure 7, he has primarily thrown his secondary pitches out of the zone with the Dodgers. While he was on the White Sox Kopech threw his fastball out of the zone 46.8% of the time, slider 50.6%, and cutter 47.7%. Since moving over to the west coast those numbers have drastically changed to 50%, 73.7%, and 84.2% respectively. I believe the Dodgers told him to lean on his elite fastball more than he has. Kopech has the ability to blow his 4 seamer by majority of the hitters he faces, it seems like he has started using his cutter and slider as almost waste pitches with the sole purpose of setting up his fastball. His swing and miss numbers on both his slider and cutter have dropped significantly, pair this with the fact that he has not allowed a hit on either pitch since being traded further supports this theory.
Conclusion
Although it seems the Dodgers maybe adjusted Kopech’s different grips, his real success I believe has come from his change in approach. Using his slider and cutter out of the zone with sole intent to set up his explosive fastball. As someone who only throws one inning per appearance, this works well for Kopech as he never sees the same batter more than once. This allows him to get away with the out of the box approach. His fastball is so elite at swing and miss that he does not need to try and use his other pitches to get outs. It is interesting to see a prospect who was projected as a dominant starter find a role that suits his skillset as a power closer.