What is Boston's Plan of Attack?

The Need to Replace Rafael Devers

The Devers trade shocked fans both in and out of the fanbase. Beyond being the only remaining link to the 2018 World Series team, Devers posted a 162-game average of 33 home runs, 106 RBI, and a 130 OPS+. Losing that production leaves a significant void. 

While Roman Anthony will undoubtedly be a massive contributor and Wilyeur Abreu has flashed promise, the lineup still needs help in both power and with runners in scoring position (RISP). Triston Casas was expected to fill that void in 2025, but a slow start and major knee surgery make him unlikely to contribute immediately in 2026. Casas may need Triple-A time to hopefully return closer to his 2023 form, when he posted an .860 OPS with 24 home runs in 132 games. 

This uncertainty also amplifies Boston’s ongoing first-base predicament. Over the past few seasons, the team has explored multiple solutions, Masataka Yoshida taking pregame drills, Vaughn Grissom transitioning over in the minors, and Kristian Campbell starting to get work, but none have proven sustainable. 

First Base Options

Pete Alonso initially seemed like a perfect fit: a right-handed power bat with a 162-game average of 42 HR and 114 RBI, elite with RISP (.309 AVG with a 1.021 OPS in 2025), and tying the NL lead in doubles. However, Alonso signed a five-year $155 million deal with Baltimore with no deferrals or options, a deal that Boston likely had no interest in matching. 

Willson Contreras has emerged as a strong candidate, with trade rumors heating up between Boston and St. Louis. Formerly a catcher, Contreras transitioned to first base full-time in 2025, providing excellent defense with a Fielding Run Value of 4 (77th percentile) and 6 Outs Above Average (91st percentile). Contreras also brings consistent offensive production, maintaining a Hard-Hit rate above 45% for six consecutive seasons producing a 121 OPS+ over that span. His pull-heavy approach from the right side and defensive ability make him a natural fit for Fenway. The main concern is his strikeout and whiff rates, which could challenge a lineup already bottom 10 in K%, Whiff%, and Chase%. This also becomes worrisome with the looming possibility of the lineup losing Alex Bregman, who has been one of the best in the MLB in all three categories throughout his career. 

Other options include Japanese star Kazuma Okamoto from the NPB who posted a .277 average and .882 OPS over 11 seasons. A gold glove caliber first baseman who can log innings at third when needed with an excellent ability to get on base, Okamoto might be the ideal fit. In recent days the rumors between the Royals and Red Sox have started to swirl. With Kansas City potentially eyeing Jarren Duran, a return of Vinnie Pasquantino would be an excellent addition. An on-base machine with 30 HR power would be a big help despite his limited defensive ability. All to say, with the big name free agent going to a division rival, Boston is going to be forced to get creative to bolster a batting order who struggled down the stretch. 

Targeting Pitching 

Boston’s rotation has been a persistent priority. Young arms like Brayan Bello have shown promising development, displaying signs of being more than reliable for stretches. Yet Craig Breslow has stressed that Boston needs an elite front-of-the-rotation starter. “Particularly someone we feel can start alongside or slot in behind Garrett and start a playoff game for us.” 

At the lead of the remaining free-agent class is lefty Framber Valdez. A proven front-of-the-rotation arm with a near ace-level ceiling. Valdez has been a true workhorse, logging 201, 198, 176, and 192 innings over 31, 31, 28, and 31 starts across the past four seasons. Known for one of the league’s best sinker-curveball pairings, Valdez excels at keeping the ball on the ground, a key attribute for Fenway. 

The rest of the top level free agents include lefty Ranger Suárez. A very consistent and reliable performer, Suárez has been excellent at limiting walks and hard contact. However with middling raw stuff and a sub-par swing and miss ability I find it hard to believe the Red Sox project Suárez out in a fashion where an investment would be worth it. Another name is Michael King. An arm that had a lot of steam when traded to San Diego in the Soto trade, but had a down year in 2025. King has a history of excellent swing and miss with devastating offspeed and breaking balls. I imagine if he was brought in, pitching coach Andrew Bailey will have him increase the use of his changeup and sweeper, mirroring the usage he displayed pre-2025. A potential concern with King, however, is his durability. The righty landed on the 15-day in May with shoulder inflammation before being transferred to the 60-day not to return till August, missing 66 games in total. King then found himself back on the IL not even a week later with knee inflammation, missing 23 games.

One of the big names who has been connected to Boston since the deadline is Joe Ryan. Ryan brings electric stuff bolstered by a high vertical break fastball and devastating sweeper that moves a near 2 feet horizontally at times. The Red Sox made an effort for Ryan at the deadline but the price tag proved too high. As we saw last season when Boston inquired about Crochet at the 2024 deadline, Chicago was asking for a combination including Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer in return. Once Boston revisited in December that price went way down and ended up being what we saw as Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, and Chase Meidroth. Perhaps a similar situation could happen this time around with the Twins starter. 

Building the Depth

Although still on the hunt for that big arm, Boston has strengthened the rotation already. Sonny Gray, a 36 year old veteran isn’t quite the pitcher he once was but can be an ideal candidate for Andrew Bailey’s development approach. Finishing 2nd in the Cy Young race in 2023 with the Twins, Gray posted a 2.79 ERA across 31 starts with the lowest FIP and HR/9 in the MLB. With the Cardinals the past 2 seasons, Gray’s performance has declined. An interesting trend with Gray involves the break on his four-seam fastball. 

Gray’s four-seam which has been his worst pitch recently has started shifting in movement, where it used to have some arm side run it has now started to cut. As displayed in the table, as his four-seam has started to cut more, his opponent slugging and wOBA have steadily increased. I imagine Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey is going to either eliminate Gray’s four-seam all together and lean into his solid sinker or try and see if he can get it back to running more arm side. Another big arsenal adjustment is going to be really emphasizing Gray’s elite sweeper. A similar strategy was applied to both Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello within the past 2 seasons. With slight tweaks in his arsenal I think Gray can be very reliable as a number 3/fringe 2. 

The other acquisition was Johan Oviedo from the Pittsburgh Pirates. A 27 year old with 3 years of control left, there is tremendous upside. Suffering Tommy John surgery and missing all of the 2024 season, Oviedo came back in 2025 revamped, even through only 9 starts. Although a 3.57 ERA with a 4.92 FIP is partially uninspiring, Oviedo has the raw stuff to be a very good number 3. A large righty standing at 6’6 275 lbs, he boasts some of the best extensions in the league at 7.4 feet with a phenomenal ability to limit hard contact and produce whiffs. Below is a trend with his four-seam as it relates to a lower arm slot. 

With a very poor chase rate, it is impressive how much overall swing and miss he was able to produce (29.9%). The largest obstacle for Oviedo is his struggles with command. If Bailey is able to help him reduce his walk rate that will only help with producing chases and unlock his potential. 

The desire to bolster the organization’s pitching depth leads me to believe there’s a possibility of moving one of their many pieces in a trade for that number 2. I don’t think there are very many untouchables when it comes to pitching depth outside of Crochet and potentially Early and Tolle. Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Hunter Dobbins, Shane Drohan, Connelly Early, Sonny Gray, Kyle Harrison, Johan Oviedo, David Sandlin, Payton Tolle, Tyler Uberstine, Patrick Sandoval, Luis Perales, Jovani Moran represent the long list of 40-man arms in Boston’s control. The continued focus to strengthen the depth of the staff only opens avenues for Breslow when it comes to finding that co-ace. “Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about overall starting pitching and Nos. 3-ish through 10-ish, and that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more. It’s just to say, I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4 or a No. 5 starter.”  Interesting quote from Breslow at the start of the offseason considering those are the tiers of starters he has acquired so far. In my opinion signs are pointing towards a trade rather than a big signing. Even if this is it for Boston in the pitching market this offseason, I don’t have a big issue in calling a rotation of Crochet, Gray, Bello, Oviedo, and Early (with support from a combination of names listed) a playoff ready staff. 

Infield Dilemma

Alex Bregman has opted out just one year after signing a 3 year deal worth $120 million last offseason. As much as Bregman has stated he enjoys Boston and as much as Boston has loved the abilities Bregman brings to a team, I don’t know if a reunion is certain. The Red Sox front office generally avoids handing out large contracts to players in their 30s. While the Scott Boras client is likely looking for closer to 6 years, I find it hard to believe Boston will be willing to go more than 4, maybe 5.... maybe. With how long it took for the Red Sox and Bregman's camp to agree to terms last year, I imagine they will be looking to play the long game once again, only this time I don't know if they will be as motivated. I think unless Bregman’s market softens and falls back into Breslow’s comfort zone it's unlikely he is going to be willing to stretch himself too far. 

Recently the Red Sox have reported to be in talks with Arizona for All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte. An extremely unique player who has finished top 10 in both OPS and wRC+ in two straight seasons. Reports state the initial return Arizona has been asking for includes infielder Marcelo Mayer along with either Connelly Early or Payton Tolle. As it currently stands I don’t see Breslow willing to give up that much. I believe Breslow is foreshadowing a world where Bregman leaves, which is very plausible. In this situation, Mayer will likely be the starting third baseman in 2026. Trading away Mayer without the guarantee of retaining Bregman exemplifies the holes that already exist. As much as Romy Gonzalez has contributed over the past 2 seasons, it is hard to envision him in a long term role. Even if Bregman was re-signed and a trade for Marte involving Mayer was accepted, the infield ages very quickly with Bregman (32), Marte (32), and Story (33). Unless Breslow can sway Arizona’s mind off of Mayer and Early/Tolle, I don’t see a trade likely. Back to the idea of Breslow's unwillingness to pay big ticket players aging into their 30s, there is another MLB bat out there that fits nicely: Bo Bichette. At only 27 years old and a publicly stated willingness to move to second base Bichette could be the guy Breslow is eyeing. Giving Bichette 6 or 7 years and placing him at 2nd, giving 3rd base to the smooth fielding Mayer, is more likely than extending past 4 for Bregman.

Boston has shown a priority in building depth and financial flexibility in recent years in favor of long-term, high-cost contracts. With the pitching depth mentioned and a nagging log jam in the outfield I think it's more likely the big Red Sox acquisition(s) come through continued trades before a big signing. With a front office that emphasizes development and finding intrinsic value, it's going to be interesting to see what the next steps are for a roster that’s ready to compete and a festering fanbase.