Gavin Lux
September 4, 2024
Infielder
Los Angeles Dodgers
Overview
Drafted 20th overall by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2016 Gavin Lux reached the status of the #2 overall prospect in all of baseball before making his debut in September 2019. The highly touted middle infield prospect struggled in his first few years of major league ball and suffered a torn ACL and MCL during Spring Training in 2023. With high hopes of coming back strong in 2024, Lux battled inconsistency hitting .213 with an OPS of only .562 in the first half of the season. However, he has exploded after the All-Star Break hitting .336 with 1.029 OPS. This offensive 180 can potentially be attributed to increased aggression from Lux at the plate. It seems Lux is swinging the bat harder than he usually does and has put a focus on lifting the ball.
Hitting Barrels
The definition of a barrel, according to the MLB, is “a batted ball with an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner a ‘Barreled’ classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.” Figure 1 displays both the exit velocity and launch angle of Lux’s batted balls both before and after the All-Star break, with the “barrels” highlighted in red. The percentage of balls that Lux has barreled has improved significantly, from 3.52% to 12.36%. Figure 2 breaks down these two variables further. With an increased average launch angle from 7.6 to 9.1 degrees, Lux has reduced his ground ball %. Coupled with the fact his average exit velocity has increased by almost 3.5 mph, this explains the increase in both his flyball and line drive percentages. These changes have allowed him to double his home run total after the break compared to before the break, despite having nearly half as many plate appearances.
Figure 3
Figure 1
Figure 2
Aggressive Swings
A significant reason for Lux’s increase in barrels and exit velocities appears to be a more aggressive approach to his swings. MLB defines a “fast swing” as one that is 75 mph or faster. Figure 3 shows Gavin Lux’s Fast Swing % before and after the season's halfway point. As you can see, this number has more than doubled. Also displayed is his swing length, which is the distance the bat travels from the start of the swing to contact. The MLB average swing length in 2024 is 7.3 feet; Lux started the season with a swing length of 7.1 and has since brought it up to the league average. Although this change is only around 2.4 inches, it seems to have made a difference.
While I do not have the information available to verify this, in my personal opinion, I believe Lux has flattened out his swing. Instead of bringing his hands straight to the ball, he could potentially be dropping his hands slightly at the start of his swing, which might explain the observed changes in launch angle and power numbers. According to MLB, in the first month of 2024, players with longer swings suffered a higher whiff rate but significantly better power numbers than those with shorter swings. This analysis applies to Lux well; with a now longer swing, his whiff rate has slightly increased, but as discussed, he is now hitting the ball harder and farther.
Conclusion
Gavin Lux's performance in the second half of the 2024 season demonstrates a significant transformation in his offensive approach. While his whiff rate has slightly increased, this is a trade-off that has paid off handsomely due to the massive improvement in his overall production. The increased aggression in his swing and focus on elevating the ball have led to more barrels, higher exit velocities, and a substantial rise in both his batting average and power numbers. Lux's ability to adjust and refine his approach at the plate suggests that, despite the initial struggles and setbacks, he has the potential to emerge as a key offensive contributor for the Dodgers' World Series hopes moving forward.