Jurickson Profar
July 10, 2024
Outfielder
San Diego Padres
Overview
After struggling heavily last season, 11-year veteran Jurickson Profar is experiencing a resurgent 2024 campaign. Being named a starter in his first career all-star selection, I decided to look at what has contributed to his turnaround start. 2023 was a down year for Profar. After signing a one-year contract with the Rockies, he was released after 111 games. That same year he signed a minor-league contract with the Padres and was brought up to appear in the remaining 14 games of the season. Profar concluded 2023 with a slash line of .242/.321/.368. This past winter he agreed to return to San Diego on a 1-year deal worth $1 million, which is starting to look like the steal of the offseason with his start of .312/.404/.492. Profar has increased his barrel % from 4.0% to 7.5%, allowing his barrel per plate appearance to increase from 2.9% to 5.3%. Although these numbers hover only around the 45th percentile, they show massive improvements to his offensive game. This coupled with the fact his average exit velocity rose from 86.5 mph (bottom 9% of the MLB) to 90.9 mph (76th percentile) is evidence of the adjustments he has made. The largest factors that contributed to his success are his increase in patience at the plate and his adjusted approach to driving the ball to the opposite field, especially changeups.
Figure 1
Smart Swing Decisions
The switch-hitting outfielder currently ranks in the 85th percentile in chase %, 86th in whiff %, 87th in strikeout %, and 90th in walk %. Profar has lowered his chase rate from 25.1% to 22.3% which has helped his whiff % to drop from 20% to 17.9%. The visuals display data only versus righties due to 72% of the pitches Profar has seen came from the left side of the plate. Figure 1 shows all pitches outside of the strike zone that Profar saw in both 2023 and so far 2024, with blue representing takes and red representing swings. This plot, created in R, displays his potentially adjusted approach of laying off pitches that miss inside, further supporting the decrease in chase and whiff rate.
Going Oppo
As mentioned, Profar has started looking to go the other way. Referencing the table pulled from Baseball Savant, you can see his Pull % has dropped 2.8% and in tandem, his Oppo % has increased by 5%. Like I said Profar has reeled in his chase swings to ones that he is confident he can still hit hard. Figure 2 shows his exit velocity on pitches outside of the zone this year compared to last. The total area of the heat being smaller shows how decisive he is being on chase pitches while the location indicates that he is targeting one spot, middle away, he has begun to lay off away pitches at the knees. Also presented is the average exit velocity on these pitches outside of the zone, which jumped almost 7 mph. Profar is looking for one spot and crushing it when it comes.
Batted Ball Profile
Courtesy of basebalsavant.mlb.com
Figure 3
Plate Discipline
Courtesy of baseballsavant.mlb.com
Figure 2
Crushing Changeups
The last point I wanted to mention is the massive success he has had on changeups so far. His Hard Hit % on such pitches increased from 33.3% to 41.2%, which has helped his batting average rise from .162 to .432 and his slugging increase from .279 to a ridiculous .568. Additionally, his strikeout % on changeups has decreased from 18.9% to 11.6%. Figure 3 shows his exit velocity on changeups. As you can see his hard hits on changeups cover more area than last year. It also reaffirms the earlier notion that he is looking for the middle away pitch. Detailed on the plot is his average exit velocity which has increased from 89.7 mph to 94.7 mph.
Conclusion
After a challenging 2023, Jurickson Profar has transformed himself into an NL all-star starter and key offensive player for the San Diego Padres. Keys to this massive turnaround has been an increase in patience at the plate, shown by his chase and whiff rates, and a focal point on driving the ball the other way. This enhanced discipline is also reflected in his hard-hit rate and exit velocity numbers, which have seen significant improvements, moving from the bottom of the league to well above league average.
​
Profar's focus on exploiting changeups has been particularly noteworthy. His hard-hit percentage on these pitches has increased, resulting in a significant boost in his batting average and slugging percentage against them. The data highlights his targeted approach, emphasizing his ability to wait for and capitalize on middle-away pitches.
​
Overall, Profar's adjustments have not only revitalized his career but have also provided substantial value to the Padres with his 160 wRC+, good for 8th in the MLB. As he continues to refine his game, Profar's performance will be crucial in the Padres' pursuit of success this season.