Jesús Luzardo's Head-Scratching Start to 2026

When I was going through players from each team who I think were worthy candidates to follow in 2026, my selections varied from already established stars looking to regain stardom to intriguing underlying performers primed to take that next step into national headlines. Once I got to Philadelphia, I was conflicted. Who should I pick? A future Hall of Famer in Bryce Harper on a path toward a “prove it” season to his own GM? An Alec Bohm, trying to cool down a scalding trade-rumor hot seat? Or a number 4 starter now tasked with carrying the load of a number 2 heading into the season? 

I ultimately went with Jesús Luzardo. Granted, no one had a firm idea of when Zack Wheeler would be back or what he would look like, so I moved forward with the idea that Luzardo would be an extremely important part of a pitching staff with real uncertainty in the back half. 

All stats and league rankings referenced below reflect numbers entering play on May 24. 

Baseball is fascinating because there are so many angles through which to view and analyze it. Luzardo’s 2026 campaign so far is a prime example. If you see an ERA approaching 5.00 and a .270 opponent batting average, 9th highest among qualified starters, you might think he is having a pretty rough season. On the flip side, if you look at a Baseball Savant page littered in red, with average exit velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate all above the 88th percentile; strikeout rate and walk rate above the 80th percentile; and an xERA and ground-ball rate above the 74th percentile, you might think this has to be one of the best starters in the league. 

That contrast is what makes Luzardo’s 2026 so fascinating, and why I have no doubt in his ability to be a rock in a Phillies squad that looks completely different than it did just a few weeks ago. 

Diving into the numbers provided by Baseball Savant and FanGraphs, it almost seems like Luzardo has been BETTER than he was last year where he posted a 112 ERA+.

Limiting Hard Contact:

Luzardo’s hard-hit rate has dropped nearly 7%, down to only 30.3%, the 2nd-lowest among qualified starting pitchers, according to Baseball Savant’s leaderboard. His average exit velocity has also fallen from 88.5 mph last year to 86.3 mph, also the 2nd-lowest mark using the same qualifier. Furthermore, his average exit velocity allowed on base hits is 91.6 mph, 11th-lowest among qualified starters. 

xwOBAcon, or expected weighted on-base average on contact estimates the expected run value of batted balls using contact quality, primarily exit velocity and launch angle. Unlike standard xwOBA, it focuses only on what happens when contact is made. For a pitcher, it helps isolate how damaging the contact allowed should be.  

Luzardo’s .361 xwOBAcon is right in line with his 2025 mark, just one point lower than the .362 he posted last year, and represents a career low since he became a full-time starter in 2022. This aligns with his exceptional hard-hit rate and career-low 5.9% barrel rate, tied for the 13th-lowest mark in baseball. 

The discrepancy between his actual and expected stats is also notable. Luzardo has a .037 gap between his BAA and xBAA, along with a .038 gap between his wOBA allowed and xwOBA allowed, both the third-largest differences in baseball.

One final note on his batted-ball profile: his pull air rate is at a career-low 13.2%, well below the 18.2% league average. Pair that with a career-high 50.0% ground-ball rate and a 25.0% hard-hit rate on ground balls, far below the 34.9% league average, and it becomes clear that Luzardo is not only limiting hard contact, but also avoiding the types of batted balls that most commonly create damage.

Limiting Traffic:

Luzardo finished in the top 10 in K-BB% in both 2023 and 2025. In 2026, he is still effectively putting hitters away while limiting free bases with a 21.6% K-BB%, ranking 12th among qualified starters. His 6.4% walk rate is a career low, while his 28.0% strikeout rate is the 3rd-highest mark of his career, just 0.5% down from last season. His 31.9% whiff rate and 35.6% chase rate are both career highs. 

By all indications, Luzardo is controlling what he can control. Because of his ability to limit airborne contact while maintaining elite strikeout and walk rates, his FIP sits at an excellent 2.86. What makes that especially interesting is that, among the 40 lowest FIPs among qualified starters, Luzardo owns the 2nd-highest ERA and is one of only three pitchers in that group with an ERA beginning with a 4. 

Could this be an extreme case of bad luck? 

Left-on-base rate represents the percentage of baserunners allowed that do not score. Typically, the league average hovers around 70%, and more often than not, pitchers’ LOB% tends to move toward the league average as innings accumulate. Given Luzardo’s unusually high ERA, his 63.8% LOB rate could be an indicator that his performance is not being accurately reflected in the surface stats, especially considering how well he limits hard contact. 

So What's The Deal? 

I do think there is a strong case that misfortune is playing a major role. Pitchers with underlying indicators as strong as Luzardo’s typically do not carry ERAs in the high 4.00s. There have been some tweaks to the arsenal, with his sweeper now his most-thrown pitch at 36%. In fact, across the board, his pitches grade out better by Stuff+ metrics. His four-seam fastball sits at a 98, its highest mark since 2022; his sinker is an exceptional 112, a career high; his changeup is at 105, also a career high; and his sweeper remains excellent at 120. Overall, Luzardo owns a 110 Stuff+, tied for 7th highest in baseball among qualified pitchers. 

The biggest issue appears to be overall strike-throwing. His first-pitch strike rate has plummeted to 58.1%, down from 67.4% last year and his lowest mark since becoming a full-time starter in 2022. That has coincided with his out-of-zone rate jumping to a career-high 56.0%. It is difficult to be consistently effective when falling behind this often. This season, nearly 29% of Luzardo’s pitches have come while behind in the count, his highest mark since 2022. 

That is what makes Luzardo’s season so interesting. The surface numbers suggest frustration, but the underlying profile still points to a pitcher doing nearly everything right. If he can get back to winning early counts, the gap between the results and the process may start to close quickly.