Boston Red Sox
October 25, 2024
81-81
AL East: 3rd place
2024 Season Team Overview
The Red Sox have been the victim of a “middle-of-the-pack” situation for the past 3 years, finishing 78-84 in both 2022 and 23 and 81-81 this past 2024 season. A historically winning franchise with 4 World Series rings and 11 postseason appearances since 2000, Boston fans are not used to being average. This past year was a rollercoaster season. The Red Sox rotation, despite losing key starter Lucas Giolito for the entire season, pulled away out of the gate as the best staff in baseball, carrying a 2.5 ERA through March, April, and the first half of May. However the bats were not holding their weight, ranked 14th (.242) in batting average and 18th in wRC+ (96). From mid-May through the end of August the script flipped. The starters regressed heavily, ranking 20th in ERA at 4.5, whereas the bats came alive landing 3rd (.263) in batting average and 7th in wRC+ (114) through this stretch. Looking at the last month of the season the team once again did a 180. The starters found their groove, finishing with a top 10 ERA in September while the bats went cold finishing 24th in both average and wRC+ for the last 27 games of the season.
The bullpen was the weak link for the 2024 Red Sox team. Outside of closer Kenley Jansen, the relief arms struggled to find stability with Garrett Whitlock out the entire season with a torn UCL. They finished in the bottom 10 among the league in ERA, WHIP, K/9, AVG, and HR/9. Despite Jansen converting 27 of his 31 save opportunities, the staff finished with 27 blown saves, 3rd worst in the MLB.
Another area the team needs to clean up is on defense. Being without Trevor Story for 136 games of the season was a massive blow to the fielding squad. Despite the impressive efforts by Rafeala, Abreu, and Duran, the Red Sox finished with 115 errors landing them 2nd worst and 3 errors away from the most in the league.
Bright Spots
Despite the 3rd straight disappointing season for Boston fans, the 2024 Red Sox was a team of breakouts. Most notably Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Cedanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu.
Jarren Duran
Jarren’s 2024 was one of the most impressive seasons in the league, good for an 8.7 WAR, 5th in the MLB. He finished with a slash line of .285/.342/.492 and 75 RBIs. He became the first player in MLB history with 10 triples, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, and 40 doubles in a season, finishing with 14, 21, 34, and 48 respectively. He also stood out defensively, with 11 outs above average, tied for 5th among all outfielders, and a massive improvement from 0 and -2 from the previous two seasons. His arm has also improved to an average velocity of 88 mph, 2 miles per hour faster than last year. These developments have earned him a Gold Glove finalist nod at center field. At the plate, he has started working more up the middle and pulling the ball less. He has also reeled in his chase and whiff numbers which has helped his strikeout rate drop 3%. His ability on the basepaths proves to be one of his most valuable tools, ranking in the 100th percentile in baserunning run value according to Savant, very often stretching an average single into a double. Duran proved himself as one of the best players in baseball in June when he hit .360 with a 1.064 OPS in the month. This performance earned him his first All-Star appearance along with the All-Star Game MVP, clobbering a game-winning 2-run home run in the 5th inning. Jarren is the type of player that Boston can build around for future success.
Tanner Houck
With the offseason acquisition of Lucas Giolito, there was a question as to whether Houck would even have a spot in the starting rotation. After losing Giolito for the season in spring training, Houck was named the 5th starter for the 2024 season. He quickly earned ace status when he racked up a 1.85 ERA and a .206 opponent batting average through 12 starts in April and May. Houck was the second Red Sox to earn All-Star status, even landing himself on Cy Young watchlists early in the season. The hiring of new pitching coach Andrew Bailey has brought a unique perspective on pitch usage to the staff. In 2023 Houck sported a pitch mix of slider (38%), sinker (30%), splitter (11%), cutter (11%), and four-seam (10%). In 2024 Houck came out with a new look, holding a repertoire of sweeper, sinker, splitter, and cutter at 41%, 32%, 25%, and 2% respectively. Although Houck did regress as he got deeper into the season, I do not believe it is an area of concern. Through his first 3 years at the big league level, Houck logged 69 innings with 18 appearances and 13 starts in 2021, 60 innings with 32 appearances and only 4 starts in 2022, and 106 innings with starting in all 21 appearances in 2023. This past ‘24 campaign Houck eclipsed these numbers with 30 starts and 178 innings, good for 15th in the AL. As he gets used to this new workload I think that Houck can maintain his early success throughout an entire season.
Ceddanne Rafaela
Ceddanne had a strong 2023 season in AA and AAA, leading to a 2024 spring training invite. With a Red Sox outfield that looked to be thin heading into the season, Rafaela earned the starting CF spot for the season. It was a question if Cedanne, known for an elite glove and impressive speed, would be able to hold his weight as a major league bat with his swing decisions. Rafaela also took on a massive responsibility once Story went down 8 games into the season and needed shoulder surgery. Although a tough ask, Rafaela provided some stability at shortstop throughout the year. With elite defense in center field, Rafaela finished with 7 outs above average and ranked 2nd among all outfielders in reaction time vs the average and covered 3 more feet than the average outfielder, ranking 6th. At the plate, Rafaela hit .246/.274/.390. Although these numbers don’t jump off the page, among qualified rookies he finished 4th in hits, tied for 2nd in triples, tied for 4th in home runs, and 3rd in RBIs. Furthermore, Rafaela was one of the clutchest players on the Red Sox this season. Rafaela hit .327 with a .908 OPS and a 150 wRC+ in high-leverage situations according to Fangraphs and a 1.317 OPS in extra innings. Rafaela signed an 8-year, $50,000,000 contract before the 2024 season with the hope that he will be the anchor in center field.
Wilyer Abreu
Starting 2024 in AAA, Abreu was abruptly called up to the major league team 2 games into the season. He quickly budded into a star for the Red Sox on both offense and defense. Among qualified rookies, the smooth-swinging Abreu finished 1st in doubles, 5th in home runs, 6th in average, 5th in OBP, 3rd in SLG, and 3rd in OPS. He also surprised everyone by the way he locked down right field. A Gold Glove finalist, he finished in the 91st percentile in outs above average, 95th percentile in arm value according to Savant, and 98th percentile in arm strength clocking 95 mph on his average velo. However, with the desperate need for pitching and a stockpile of young up-and-coming talents, Abreu has been a headline name as a serious trade candidate. Although Boston would love to keep Abreu as the everyday right fielder, both his current value and the potential for top prospect Roman Anthony to debut next year means there is a chance Abreu is going to wear another uniform in 2025.
The Big Three
Chaim Bloom, named president of baseball ops before the 2019 season was fired at the end of 2023. While he was not favored in the eyes of most Red Sox fans he was hired for a specific reason. Bloom was known for his work with the Tampa Bay Rays and the ability to construct a contender on a budget. He was brought in to build up the farm system and reset the successful organization coming off of a very expensive 2018 World Series run. Although he is known for the infamous Mookie Betts trade that landed Connor Wong along with Jeter Downs and Alex Verdugo (both of whom are not on the team anymore), Bloom’s transactions have provided players who will be key to the Red Sox's future. His most notable acquisitions include the drafting of top prospects Roman Anthony (MLB #3 prospect) and Kristian Campbell (MLB #10 prospect). Both compensation round picks, Anthony was selected 79th overall and Campbell at 132nd overall, and the two are projected to be everyday contributors at the big league level. They were able to grab shortstop Marcelo Mayer (MLB #7 prospect) 4th overall in 2021 and catcher Kyle Teel (MLB #25 prospect) at 14th in 2023. Another impressive transaction was the ability to acquire Wilyer Abreu for a regressing Christian Vasquez. Bloom also grabbed Nick Yorke under slot value at 17 in 2020, who was recently flipped for promising young pitcher Quinn Priester who has shown great potential. Bloom also made a strong pick in the 2020 Rule 5 draft, picking Garrett Whitlock who has been an extremely solid high-leverage reliever ever since. The Red Sox hold onto 6 top 100 prospects, 3 of which are in the top 10.
Roman Anthony (BOS #1, MLB #3)
Anthony has exploded onto the scene, making jumps from A and ranked outside of the team’s top 30 in 2022, to AA in 2023 ranked #10 in the system, to one of the highest praised prospects in the sport. After winning the skills competition in the MLB Futures Games during All-Star Weekend, he reached the status of the #3 prospect according to MLB.com and #1 according to Baseball America. Following a promotion to AAA in August Roman only got better, hitting .344 with a .982 OPS and a BB/K rate of 1.00 (31 walks, 31 strikeouts) which would place him 3rd among 2024 MLB hitters. A high-profile prospect out of high school, the Red Sox grabbed Anthony in the supplemental 2nd round, giving him a bonus 600k above slot value. Although possessing league-average speed but with good fielding and arm potential, his bat is among the best in the minors. A smooth-swinging lefty with explosive bat speed, the ball launches off of his bat to where there is a good chance Anthony can be the everyday right fielder in Boston. Turning only 21 this upcoming May, with the potential he has displayed, there have been rumors that he could receive an extension within the next year. A situation similar to what rookie sensation Jackson Churio got from the Brewers (8 years $82 million) before he made his debut.
Marcelo Mayer (BOS #2, MLB #7)
The Red Sox were able to grab Mayer, who was rated the best prospect in the 2021 draft, at 4th overall giving him a franchise record bonus of $6.6 million. Mayer impressed in his first year in single-A in 2022 earning a promotion to AA in 2023. He started the first two months in AA hitting .337 with a .996 OPS. However, after suffering a shoulder injury in May he struggled to get back to form hitting under .200 before being shut down for the season. He found his stride again in 2024 in AA raking above .300 with a .850 OPS. Unfortunately after suffering a lumbar strain at the end of May, although receiving the promotion to AAA shortly after, he missed the rest of the 2024 season. Another smooth-swinging lefty at 6’3 190 lbs, Mayer has shown incredible power with the need to slightly improve swing decisions and contact rate in order to hit consistently at the next level. The real concern is in his durability. Now suffering 2 season-ending injuries at only 21 years old there is a question as to whether he can endure a full 162-game big league season. With the massive stockpile of promising prospects that Boston holds, Mayer seems to be the most likely one to get moved if the Red Sox want to pursue a front-line rotation arm.
Kristian Campbell (BOS #3, MLB #10)
Campbell amassed a ridiculous number of awards for his spectacular 2024 campaign. Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year, MiLB’s Hitting Prospect of the Year, and MiLB’s Breakout Player of the Year were just some of the accolades he earned. Campbell moved through the Red Sox system at a rate that has seldom been seen before. Starting the 2024 season outside of the team’s top 30 he quickly made a name for himself going through all 3 levels of minor league ball in the same season. Starting in A+ he hit .306 with a .976 OPS through 40 games, promoted to AA at the beginning of June he got better, hitting .362 with a 1.045 OPS while also improving his BB/K ratio. He received his AAA promotion in late August where he finished the final 19 games of the season with a .286 average and a .898 OPS. Boston took Campbell, a red-shirt freshman at Georgia Tech, at pick 132 as a compensation pick they received from Xander Bogaerts signing with the Padres. Known for his contact ability in college, Boston was able to put some more size on him leading to a big jump in power numbers. With a 60-graded run tool, Campbell has shown an ability to cover ground both in the field and on the base paths, although not a prolific base stealer. A Boston team that has struggled to find stability at second base since Dustin Pedroia, Kristian Campbell has the potential to be that everyday middle infielder they have been searching for. With a similar ceiling to that of Roman Anthony, it seems these two are going to be the cornerstones of the team’s future. Furthermore, it seems there is a potential that, like Anthony, he could receive an extension very early into his career.
Offseason Outlook
It has been hammered home by Boston’s owners and front office executives that this next wave of prospects is the future of the team and it is of the utmost importance to keep that core intact. However, after an underwhelming 2023 offseason and missing the playoffs for the 3rd straight year, many Red Sox fans have started to believe that 2024 is the year to spend and it seems that the organization is behind that. In a recent interview, CBO Craig Breslow stated “We are preparing to be more decisive, more aggressive to field a team that is capable of winning the division, making a deep playoff run…it is time to deliver to our fans the teams they have come to expect.” A good sign to support this is the extension that manager Alex Cora, who could have easily gotten the Craig Counsel deal elsewhere, signed this year to stay in Boston. Many speculate that Cora agreed after getting assurance from executives that they are ready to start spending.
Tyler O'Neill
Tyler O’Neill is up for the qualifying offer this offseason after having the best season of his career since 2021 putting up 31 home runs with a 132 OPS+. Going into his age 30 season, O’Neill’s durability remains in question, only playing 113 games in 2024. A team desperate for right-handed power it seems bringing O’Neill back would be the right move. However, with the qualifying offer being a steep $21.05 million, I think the team will try and work out a 1-year deal for a lower price if possible. It makes absolute sense for Boston to bring O’Neill back but at the right price. If a deal can't be agreed upon, slugger Teoscar Hernandez would be a great addition, with a projected AAV of just a little over $2 million more than the qualifying offer to O’Neill.
Rob Refsnyder
Refsnyder provided fantastic bench help and platoon support for the 2024 season. The right-hander who finished with his best season hitting .283 with a 129 OPS+ in 93 games, has a club option for the 2025 season worth $2.1 million. A clubhouse favorite that provides above-average bat support at a good price, it only makes sense for the Red Sox to pick up his last year before free agency.
Snell/Fried/Burnes
The #1 need for the 2025 Red Sox is a front-line ace. With the breakout of Tanner Houck, the improvement towards the end of the year for Brayan Bello, and Pivetta likely walking, Boston needs a proven ace who has shown he can produce year in and year out. The ace opportunities in free agency this year are thin. Future Hall of Famers like Verlander and Scherzer are available, but an investment would not be wise at the tail end of their careers. Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes seem to be the only worthy candidates to hold the “ace” designation, aside from Gerrit Cole who is predicted to accept his player option with the Yankees. Coming off of a Cy Young award, Blake Snell continued to dominate in 2024. With an ERA+ of 124, a WHIP of 1.05, and one of the best whiff rates in the league, Snell would have no problem sliding into the #1 in Boston. While he holds the MLB record for career K/9, his control was often a concern due to a high walk rate. However, this year Snell improved his K/9 and BB/9 compared to his Cy Young season. Spotrac has set his market value at 5 years with $26.3 million AAV.
Max Fried isn’t the strikeout pitcher that Snell is but he has been just as effective. Since 2020 Fried has recorded an ERA+ of 208, 143, 166, 171, and 128 in 2024. Fried excels at getting weak contact with his 7-pitch mix. Although his overall stats and metrics don't jump off the page, he has proven year in and year out that he can be a lockdown starter. Coming into his age 31 season, Spotrac has his market value at $22.7 million, predicting he could get a 6-year deal. Fried is extremely likely to receive a qualifying offer from Atlanta, so the Red Sox would have to take that into consideration.
Corbin Burnes is probably the most prolific ace on this list. Earning his 4th straight All-Star selection, Burnes posted a 2.92 ERA and WHIP of 1.1. A savant page littered in red, Corbin Burnes has posted over 30 starts for the third straight year, an ability that Boston puts extreme value in. The only concern is that, in 2024, his K/9 decreased for the 4th straight year coming in at only 8.4, 35th among qualified starters. Potentially the most expensive option with a projected value of $30.1 million AAV, Burnes is also likely to get the qualifying offer.
Flaherty, Bieber, Manaea
Another approach that the front office has hinted at is to land a young break-out candidate that Andrew Bailey could mold. Flaherty who experienced this kind of breakout in 2024, posted a 3.17 ERA and 10.8 K/9. He has the right stuff for the ace potential the Red Sox have been looking for. Spotrac projects his market value at $20.2 million over 3 years. Make sure to check out the profile I crafted earlier this season on Flaherty’s secret to success, here.
2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber is a candidate who has circulated around the Red Sox fan base recently as a potential acquisition. Through his first two starts of the season, Bieber posted 12 innings, 1 walk, 0 runs, and 20 strikeouts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. With elite whiff and strikeout rates throughout his career, he could be a perfect fit for a team looking to improve their swing and miss, especially with Pivetta likely moving on. With a projected $24.5 million AAV it could be hard to get Bieber away from the Guardians who are also desperate for an improved rotation.
With the Mets being Manaea’s 4th team in 4 years, he found a new life towards the end of 2024. He finished the year with a 3.5 ERA and a 1.1 WHIP and struck out 9.1 over nine innings. Manaea made the crucial decision to drop his arm slot at the beginning of August, decreasing his arm angle by almost 10 degrees. This improved his whiff numbers with his opponent's average dipping below .200 post-All-Star break and a WHIP under 1. If the Red Sox are looking for serious breakout potential that Bailey can polish, Manaea could be the perfect candidate. Spotrac has a market value of $14.5 million per year.
Trade
Another option for the team is to go after an ace through trade. With the stockpile of prospects and young stars, the Red Sox has the capital for this route. Boston and Seattle have had talks towards a trade for the past few offseasons but were never able to strike a deal. Boston has pursued one of the young starting arms that the Mariners hold for quite some time. However, Seattle has been headstrong in asking for Triston Casas back in a deal if they were to give up a player like Brayan Woo, Logan Gilbert, or George Kirby. With Casas as a key piece in the Sox’s future, maybe Breslow could shift their interest to another bat.
The most likely trade candidate in the MLB is White Sox’s Garrett Crochet. A Cy Young-worthy season in 2024 and as one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, the price tag for Crochet, who has 2 years left of control, is going to be hefty. This is where a player like Wilyer Abreu would headline a package for the starter. With Chicago not giving up their star easily, it might take a Marcelo Mayer plus another top-15 prospect to get a deal done. Not only does this get an ace in Boston but it also frees up an outfield spot for Roman Anthony’s likely debut in 2025. Yoshida was another player whose name floated around as a potential trade chip. However, I can’t see another team willing to take on his big contract unless Boston agrees to eat a majority of it, especially with the recent news he will need shoulder surgery.
Bullpen
With Kenley Jansen going to another team in 2025, the Red Sox bullpen needs serious help. There is a good chance that 38-year-old Chris Martin, who is a solid contributor when healthy, will come back on a 1-year deal. With closer Liam Hendricks and solid long relief arm Garrett Whitlock being back full-time, lefty free agent Tanner Scott seems to be the ideal option to slide into the bullpen. Although worth a projected $17 million, Scott provides what you pay for. In a 2024 season where he ranked above the 85th percentile in xERA, xBA, Whiff %, K%, Barrel %, Hard-Hit %, and ground ball rate, Scott is about as reliable as it gets for a reliever.
Conclusion
After a another disappointing season in 2024, Red Sox fans have a lot to look forward to. Despite falling short of the playoffs for the third straight year there were several bright spots that signal hope for the future. Breakout performances from Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu highlighted a team that has talent but needs more consistency, particularly in the bullpen and on defense. The organization’s wealth of top prospects, such as Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell, adds to the optimism as they represent the future of the franchise. The offseason will be critical, with the need to acquire a frontline ace, clean up the bullpen, and solidify the lineup. Red Sox fans have long been accustomed to a winning culture, and while the past few years have been rough, the foundation for a bright future is being built. Whether it’s through strategic free-agent signings or trade acquisitions, the 2025 season will be a test of whether this team can finally escape the middle of the pack and once again contend for a championship.